Harris vs Trump: Who is winning the US presidential race? Here’s what the polls indicate ahead of the high-octane debate

On November 5, American voters will cast their ballots to elect the country’s next president. The election was supposed to be a rematch of 2020, but President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race and the endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris in July changed that.

The key question is whether it will be a second term for Donald Trump or whether Harris will become America’s first female president.

All eyes will be on Harris and Trump when they face off in their first presidential debate today.

Prior to Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race, polls had consistently favored Trump. Numerous polls at the time suggested that Harris would not fare much better. However, as the campaign began, the race became more competitive and she continued to hold a small lead over her opponent in the national poll average.

According to a number of polls conducted before Tuesday night’s battle, there is a tight race between the two presidential contenders.

A look at what the latest polls are saying

New York Times/Sienna College Poll

The latest New York Time/Sienna College poll, which was released Sunday, shows Trump leading Harris 48 percent to 47 percent. 1,695 registered voters were polled for the poll between September 3 and 6. However, it is crucial to note that the margin of sampling error for the poll is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, which is wider than the gap between the two competitors.

According to the poll, voters still feel they need to know more about Harris. While only 9 percent of likely voters in the survey felt this way about Trump, 28 percent said they wanted more information about the Democratic nominee.

Washington Post poll

The Washington Post poll shows Harris ahead in three of the seven battleground states most likely to decide the outcome of the election. She leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump is by a narrow margin in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

The Washington Post’s election data incorporates state and national surveys that take into account each state’s last two presidential election results to determine which candidate voters support.

Emerson College Survey

Harris leads Donald Trump by a narrow margin of 49 percent to 47 percent, according to the Emerson College poll. While three percent of voters are unsure, one percent want to vote for another candidate, the survey found.

Morning consultation survey

Harris leads Trump 49 percent to 46 percent in a new poll by business intelligence firm Morning Consult, according to their Daily Monitor poll of likely voters.

FiveThirtyEight poll

Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin in a national poll released Monday, according to the latest poll from FiveThirtyEight, a website specializing in political, economic and polling analysis. Harris leads Trump 47.1% to 44.3%.

YouGov survey

According to a YouGov poll released Sunday, Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin in Michigan (50%–49%) and Wisconsin (51%–49), but the two candidates are deadlocked in Pennsylvania.

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Harris vs. Trump: Who’s Winning in the Swing States?

Trump turned Democratic strongholds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin red in 2016 on his way to becoming president. In 2020, Biden outperformed them again; if Harris can do the same this year, victory will be in her hands.

On the day Biden withdrew from the campaign, he slipped behind Trump in those seven battleground states by an average of nearly five percentage points, indicating how the race has evolved since Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee.

Harris vs Trump: Can voters trust the polls?

As of now, polls show Trump and Harris tied by a few percentage points nationally and in battleground states. In such a close contest, it is extremely difficult to determine the winner.

Polls underestimated Trump’s support in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Polling firms will try to address this problem in several ways, one of which will be to ensure that their findings accurately represent the demographics of to those who voted.